So far into 2009, we've been told that the collapse of capitalism is imminent, that the structure of the U.S. economy has irreversibly changed and that the whole law firm model needs to be fundamentally rethought. These prophecies might make the reasonable man think that there's been a sea-change in the way the top law firms are viewed; indeed, in the understanding of which law firms are the industry leaders.

Not according to Vault, the premier U.S. ranking service. In their 2010 rankings of the 100 most prestigious U.S. law firms to work for, Vault seems to view the roller-coaster economy as an unimportant, if entertaining, side-show. How else do we explain the fact that the top five firms remain largely unchanged despite apparent changes in their hiring and professional practices?

It's no surprise that New York M&A powerhouse Wachtell Lipton Rosen & Katz should be ranked the most prestigious firm for the eighth year in a row. It's common industry knowledge that Wachtell would generate record profits even if it suddenly moved to Mars. It's the other names on the list that might make one give the list another look.

That other New York institution, Cravath, Swaine & Moore, was ranked second. In any other year that wouldn't be surprising, but this year hasn't been the kindest for Cravath. First, it halved its bonuses. Second, it fired twenty-five attorneys (not common practice at a firm that's reputedly as solid as Goldman Sachs....ummmm....no, I mean the Federal Reserve...scratch that...well, you get the idea). Third, Cravath offered cold comfort to its incoming associates, indicating that bonuses might continue to be lower than usual. Enough to bump it to third place or lower? Apparently not. Similarly for those other big beasts, Sullivan & Cromwell and Skadden Arps, ranked third and fourth respectively - Skadden fired 80 members of its staff while Sullivan showed thirty attorneys the door.

What makes all of this so much stranger is the fact that Vault does seem to have taken the economy into account in some ways. Thus, Weil Gotshal Manges rises several places to #6, largely on the basis of their outstanding (and lately very busy) bankruptcy and restructuring department. Ditto for Kirkland & Ellis of Chicago, bankruptcy barons who enter the top 10 to take the tenth slot. Clearly (and correctly), Vault saw Weil and Kirkland as uniquely well-positioned to take advantage of the distress all around them.

There's been rough justice elsewhere as well with Latham & Watkins, the lords of the layoff who made a record 190 attorneys redundant along with 250 staff, sliding down to #17, where the cool kids never go. And don't even mention Cadwalader Wickersham & Taft, erstwhile sultans of structured finance who find themselves downgraded to junk, crashing from #26 in the 2009 rankings to #60 this year.

All of which makes you wonder just what's going on in the Vault. There's got to be some kind of reasoning to these rankings. Surely a firm of Washington D.C. super-lawyers which invariably attracts excellent litigation talent such as Williams & Connolly should be ranked higher than #11? Vault doesn't think so and if the people at Williams were less nice, I'd tell them to sue.

These unexplained anomalies are a pity because there's clearly some kind of thinking about the bigger economic picture going on at Vault. One man who does seem to have understood it is the French journalist and novelist Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr. As he put it - "the more things change the more they remain the same." They clearly understand that idea over at Vault.

 (All layoff figures available at Law Shucks).

Lexpert is an Indian lawyer currently based out of the United States.

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